A farmer had only one horse. One day, his horse ran away.

All the neighbors came by saying, “I’m so sorry. This is such bad news. You must be so upset.” The man just said, “We’ll see.”

A few days later, his horse came back with twenty wild horses. The man and his son corraled all 21 horses.

All the neighbors came by saying, “Congratulations! This is such good news. You must be so happy!” The man just said, “We’ll see.”

One of the wild horses kicked the man’s only son, breaking both his legs.

All the neighbors came by saying, “I’m so sorry. This is such bad news. You must be so upset.” The man just said, “We’ll see.”

The country went to war, and every able-bodied young man was drafted to fight. The war was terrible and killed every young man, but the farmer’s son was spared, since his broken legs prevented him from being drafted.

All the neighbors came by saying, “Congratulations! This is such good news. You must be so happy!” The man just said, “We’ll see.”

近塞上之人，有善术者。马无故亡而入胡，人皆吊之。其父曰：“此何遽不为福乎？”居数月，其马将胡骏马而归，人皆贺之。其父曰：“此何遽不能为祸乎？”家富良马，其子好骑，堕而折其髀（读音bì，股，大腿），人皆吊之，其父曰：“此何遽不为福乎？”居一年，胡人大侵入塞，丁壮者引弦而战，近塞之人，死者十九，此独以跛之故，父子相保。

《淮南子·人间训》

靠近边塞地方住着一群人，里面有一位善于推测吉凶祸福的人。他家的马无缘无故跑到胡人那里去了，大家都安慰他。他父亲说：“这怎么就知道不是福气呢？”过了几个月，他家的马带着胡人的骏马回来了，大家都祝贺他。他父亲说：“这怎么就知道不是祸患呢？”家里多了良马，他的儿子喜欢骑马，有一次从马上摔下来折断了大腿骨，大家都安慰他，他的父亲又说：“这怎么就知道不是福气呢？”过了一年，胡人大举侵入边塞，壮年男子都拿起弓箭参战，住在边塞附近的壮年男子百分之九十的人都因战争而死去，因为他儿子腿瘸的原因，父子的性命都得以保全。

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